Mine Operators Hold Strong Reluctance to Sell, Manganese Ore Market Fluctuates Upward [SMM Manganese Ore Daily Report]

November 18:

North China ports: South African high-iron ore at 29.6-30.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon ore at 39.7-40.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps at 39.9-40.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 35.4-35.9 yuan/mtu, up 0.28% WoW.

South China ports: South African high-iron ore at 30.8-31.3 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 36.9-37.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon ore at 40.5-41.2 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps at 40.2-40.9 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 37.3-37.8 yuan/mtu, up 1.35% WoW.

The manganese ore market currently showed an upward fluctuation pattern, with miners' offers remaining firm, downstream alloy enterprises' purchasing negotiation room continued to narrow, and overall spot market prices held up well in the high range.

Supply side, Q4 overseas mainstream miners raised their long-term manganese ore offers to China, coupled with the impact of the traditional shipping off-season, the volume of ore shipped from mines to main Chinese ports in Q4 declined YoY. The rising long-term arrival costs further strengthened miners' bullish expectations, reluctance to sell in the spot market became more apparent, offers remained firm, and actual transaction prices consistently stabilized in the high range.

Demand side, downstream demand showed regional divergence. Alloy plants in north China maintained normal production scheduling pace, adopting a "purchase as needed" approach for manganese ore, with relatively steady demand release; the southern market, however, polarized: Hunan saw new SiMn capacity come online today, directly boosting local manganese ore procurement demand; while in Yunnan, affected by the approaching dry season, rising electricity prices pushed up alloy production costs, leading most plants to choose production cuts to avoid peak rates, significantly reducing production schedules, and corresponding manganese ore procurement demand pulled back.

Inventory side, inventory levels showed healthy destocking, providing effective support for high prices. Last week, manganese ore inventory at domestic main ports continued its destocking trend, with overall inventory currently maintained at a medium level, and industry inventory pressure relatively controllable.

Overall, the current manganese ore market supply-demand pattern featured "tight supply, divergent demand, and healthy inventory." In the short term, supply pressure in the manganese ore market was relatively limited, and the overall market was expected to maintain a strong holding pattern.